* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/25/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 29 38 46 53 53 55 56 61 64 67 70 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 29 38 46 53 44 34 29 28 31 34 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 28 27 27 27 31 34 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 11 13 12 9 9 10 8 7 9 9 9 5 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 4 2 -2 -2 -5 -5 0 -5 -1 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 24 19 352 342 341 52 137 113 145 116 202 247 266 331 357 84 203 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.4 29.8 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.4 30.3 30.7 31.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 162 161 162 164 168 167 161 155 156 161 167 167 170 171 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 10 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 67 67 69 69 73 71 75 75 70 66 67 69 71 71 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -35 -46 -55 -51 -29 -11 21 38 49 30 41 29 26 11 5 -7 200 MB DIV 48 51 34 24 23 42 40 31 44 20 17 22 -1 34 0 30 16 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 497 465 434 400 368 292 213 147 59 -21 -81 -78 -65 37 128 135 97 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.6 102.8 102.9 103.0 102.8 102.4 102.2 102.2 102.4 103.0 103.9 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 6 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 56 61 60 55 45 38 35 32 26 21 21 26 33 28 25 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 39. 44. 47. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 18. 26. 33. 33. 35. 36. 41. 44. 47. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 102.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 3.2% 4.1% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 1.4% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/25/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##