* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 28 31 32 30 25 22 24 29 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 24 28 31 32 30 25 22 24 29 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 21 20 19 18 18 20 23 26 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 16 15 24 27 31 27 31 20 18 3 6 3 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 1 -2 1 -2 0 -5 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 351 356 16 11 16 27 22 32 35 53 47 108 41 98 79 99 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 160 155 149 154 161 162 157 154 154 155 157 161 160 159 161 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 70 70 70 72 69 73 67 67 62 60 57 55 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 28 44 34 23 -7 -40 -91 -71 -93 -65 -75 -50 -62 -63 -64 -51 200 MB DIV 61 68 70 64 34 26 27 -6 20 -1 7 -9 24 -2 1 -25 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 5 3 3 4 0 3 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 180 171 192 199 230 313 458 571 663 701 701 672 647 579 512 423 323 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.3 18.0 19.6 21.2 22.4 23.4 23.8 23.9 23.7 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 59.9 59.9 59.8 59.6 59.6 59.5 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.9 60.1 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 7 8 8 6 3 1 1 1 3 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 63 67 72 66 61 77 72 46 37 35 39 45 57 70 61 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -23. -22. -20. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 5. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.1 59.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.5% 7.1% 3.3% 0.9% 4.2% 3.9% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% Consensus: 1.0% 4.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 22 24 28 31 32 30 25 22 24 29 34 38 41 44 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 22 26 29 30 28 23 20 22 27 32 36 39 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 22 25 26 24 19 16 18 23 28 32 35 38 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT