* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/26/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 42 49 62 65 71 78 75 63 54 46 43 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 42 49 62 65 71 78 56 36 30 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 41 46 50 53 42 31 28 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 1 10 10 16 15 15 13 13 20 25 35 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 4 6 1 6 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 88 34 41 298 320 307 301 302 295 275 216 214 217 218 247 259 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 30.0 30.8 30.8 30.6 31.5 30.7 29.3 29.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 159 158 158 158 168 171 172 173 173 173 157 168 106 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 1 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 67 67 67 68 64 65 67 74 77 72 62 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 12 13 19 20 23 27 27 20 16 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 48 36 20 29 36 29 53 23 45 13 58 57 59 34 25 -17 -36 200 MB DIV 45 30 22 22 30 37 59 50 90 30 100 73 117 56 71 6 20 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 -1 0 1 2 3 7 8 12 16 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 147 106 96 88 77 77 75 48 98 224 354 158 -101 -140 -194 -125 59 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.8 22.0 23.6 25.8 28.3 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.4 86.5 86.6 86.7 86.7 86.6 86.4 86.1 86.1 85.7 85.0 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 1 0 3 5 7 10 12 14 13 13 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 51 114 71 41 7 6 4 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. 37. 34. 31. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 4. 5. 12. 13. 18. 22. 21. 10. 3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 22. 29. 42. 45. 51. 58. 55. 43. 34. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.0 86.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 26.2% 12.7% 4.6% 2.3% 16.3% 25.8% 41.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 10.1% Consensus: 1.5% 9.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.8% 5.5% 8.7% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/26/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 31 42 49 62 65 71 78 56 36 30 28 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 41 48 61 64 70 77 55 35 29 27 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 37 44 57 60 66 73 51 31 25 23 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT