* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 72 77 88 91 95 92 89 81 70 63 63 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 72 77 88 91 95 92 89 81 70 63 63 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 73 81 92 99 98 94 86 74 64 56 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 12 9 4 2 9 11 17 26 28 24 33 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 -3 -2 -3 3 4 4 3 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 230 211 216 236 123 20 47 295 266 272 265 246 192 144 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.4 30.1 28.8 28.3 27.3 28.2 23.1 15.7 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 164 169 167 171 171 148 142 130 143 98 78 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -49.2 -50.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 64 63 62 64 59 63 60 64 65 68 63 60 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 20 24 24 27 26 27 27 25 24 26 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 31 40 35 20 28 3 35 17 19 4 53 153 257 285 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 8 48 27 10 41 15 17 25 13 -12 96 68 186 95 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 6 0 3 7 1 -4 4 4 16 27 -31 -74 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 458 495 532 590 636 755 875 960 856 825 769 632 514 142 805 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.9 24.5 26.0 27.8 29.6 31.3 33.5 35.8 38.5 41.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.3 66.5 67.3 68.1 68.3 68.1 67.1 65.3 62.0 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 13 16 21 28 37 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 67 70 77 69 41 51 51 24 15 11 38 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 7. 8. 12. 10. 13. 12. 8. 6. 8. 10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 15. 11. 5. -0. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 33. 36. 40. 37. 34. 26. 15. 8. 8. 11. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.6 66.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 39.9% 25.6% 18.3% 11.5% 27.0% 28.8% 35.3% Logistic: 10.0% 19.9% 11.8% 4.1% 1.6% 12.7% 15.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 5.1% 8.6% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 3.9% 8.6% 1.0% Consensus: 7.7% 22.8% 13.4% 7.9% 4.5% 14.5% 17.6% 15.5% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 20.0% 40.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 11( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 66 72 77 88 91 95 92 89 81 70 63 63 66 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 60 66 71 82 85 89 86 83 75 64 57 57 60 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 73 76 80 77 74 66 55 48 48 51 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 61 64 68 65 62 54 43 36 36 39 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT