* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 18 21 26 33 36 38 37 33 63 64 70 103 115 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 18 21 26 33 36 38 37 33 63 64 70 103 115 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 22 22 22 26 34 36 40 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 13 16 9 17 9 16 16 29 35 25 21 10 47 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 0 -3 4 10 10 12 2 SHEAR DIR 263 297 290 296 316 291 308 293 340 356 355 349 331 303 129 175 189 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.8 23.4 15.4 5.1 4.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 154 152 150 150 152 149 147 139 135 131 127 103 78 71 70 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -50.2 -49.1 -47.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.5 2.6 1.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 67 68 71 72 71 66 62 59 59 62 58 55 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 6 6 6 4 25 27 28 45 43 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -48 -56 -59 -65 -72 -77 -67 -81 -75 -92 -45 -42 61 241 258 101 200 MB DIV -12 4 9 -7 3 32 0 19 6 0 1 35 48 110 33 -27 -230 700-850 TADV -1 2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 10 0 29 25 -107 113 LAND (KM) 1518 1482 1479 1494 1504 1583 1671 1691 1612 1546 1454 1268 939 610 863 993 950 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 25.0 25.9 26.8 27.6 29.1 30.4 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.5 35.2 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.8 50.5 51.1 51.8 52.5 53.0 53.1 53.3 53.4 53.7 53.4 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 9 7 7 4 4 3 6 12 24 39 51 45 36 HEAT CONTENT 22 36 33 31 27 22 19 16 16 14 15 10 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 17 CX,CY: -11/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 884 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 17. 19. 25. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 9. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. -8. 21. 22. 24. 47. 40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 6. 13. 16. 18. 17. 13. 43. 44. 50. 83. 95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.8 48.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.2 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.1% 5.8% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.9% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 17 18 21 26 33 36 38 37 33 63 64 70 103 115 18HR AGO 20 19 18 17 18 21 26 33 36 38 37 33 63 64 70 103 115 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 16 19 24 31 34 36 35 31 61 62 68 101 113 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT