* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 08/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 19 22 28 35 41 45 47 48 51 53 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 19 22 28 35 41 45 47 40 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 24 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 16 13 8 12 8 13 5 9 10 14 9 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 1 7 5 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 25 14 10 14 32 58 83 88 74 78 15 343 348 9 342 358 36 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 158 157 158 160 161 163 167 167 165 162 156 153 151 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 9 8 8 7 10 9 10 9 10 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 67 64 64 68 68 71 75 73 68 68 71 76 72 70 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -62 -56 -55 -58 -41 -8 19 29 15 24 6 14 7 6 -9 7 200 MB DIV 39 16 30 52 56 59 49 40 54 3 13 2 15 28 13 24 10 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 544 538 510 479 455 391 325 246 171 93 34 -10 -54 -99 -162 -185 -143 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.0 104.1 104.1 104.0 103.4 102.9 102.5 102.3 102.2 102.5 102.7 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 40 41 43 52 49 40 36 33 31 28 24 19 17 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 40. 44. 46. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 103.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##