* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 57 60 60 59 57 59 56 53 51 46 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 57 60 60 59 57 59 56 53 51 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 42 42 41 43 44 43 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 5 3 3 5 4 8 5 6 6 9 17 28 37 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -1 1 -1 1 -2 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 64 45 1 24 85 141 157 226 243 296 289 309 273 282 277 285 289 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.2 25.9 24.8 24.8 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.9 24.1 24.6 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 141 126 123 111 112 100 99 97 102 104 109 108 107 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 76 71 68 64 59 53 48 41 39 37 33 32 27 23 20 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 19 21 22 21 21 20 19 20 18 15 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 92 85 69 55 51 48 51 50 70 73 85 103 105 96 93 58 50 200 MB DIV 96 116 93 60 47 51 40 -5 -19 -12 0 -13 -31 -5 -24 4 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -1 -2 0 0 2 2 2 6 6 5 3 5 7 2 LAND (KM) 1127 1111 1105 1137 1153 1222 1329 1474 1671 1904 2130 1946 1735 1474 1192 1037 995 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 13 12 11 11 11 12 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 30 37 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 5. 2. -0. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 32. 35. 35. 34. 32. 34. 31. 28. 26. 21. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 116.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 18.6% 9.5% 3.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 14.2% 9.3% 1.1% 0.3% 7.2% 5.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##