* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 81 88 95 102 105 104 98 87 80 72 67 73 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 81 88 95 102 105 104 98 87 80 72 67 73 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 81 85 95 106 112 107 97 87 79 71 60 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 4 5 3 7 5 15 27 20 19 25 43 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -3 0 0 -3 -4 -9 -3 5 7 4 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 203 215 257 30 197 15 309 277 277 277 253 247 200 178 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.8 27.1 27.9 23.2 16.9 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 169 169 161 163 156 144 135 128 140 98 77 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -48.4 -46.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 60 63 57 57 57 61 59 68 64 57 53 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 22 22 27 29 31 31 29 30 30 31 34 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 34 12 29 22 24 45 32 35 59 93 134 176 195 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 49 30 0 8 32 6 5 -2 0 22 34 65 95 59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 -3 0 3 3 -5 8 1 13 -2 6 -95 -204 -223 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 511 550 593 646 699 753 887 829 734 741 731 633 581 277 587 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.9 28.6 30.4 32.0 33.9 36.2 38.8 41.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.6 66.8 67.2 67.7 68.8 69.4 69.3 69.1 67.9 65.3 61.3 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 13 18 23 26 26 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 72 68 55 44 44 47 32 19 13 10 30 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 9. 12. 15. 15. 12. 12. 11. 11. 15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -10. -10. -11. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 23. 30. 37. 40. 39. 33. 22. 15. 7. 2. 8. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.2 66.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.46 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 42.6% 30.7% 23.3% 16.3% 26.0% 26.2% 30.1% Logistic: 4.9% 14.4% 9.4% 3.2% 0.9% 5.1% 5.3% 4.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 8.5% 20.3% 14.0% 9.1% 5.8% 10.7% 11.1% 11.5% DTOPS: 12.0% 29.0% 11.0% 9.0% 4.0% 87.0% 93.0% 28.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 11( 17) 17( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 76 81 88 95 102 105 104 98 87 80 72 67 73 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 69 74 81 88 95 98 97 91 80 73 65 60 66 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 73 80 87 90 89 83 72 65 57 52 58 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 62 69 76 79 78 72 61 54 46 41 47 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT