* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 37 43 54 55 61 66 69 62 53 46 41 37 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 24 25 26 31 32 39 43 40 31 28 29 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 20 22 24 25 29 30 32 34 36 29 27 29 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 13 10 11 12 13 14 5 5 15 26 37 42 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 1 0 5 0 2 0 -3 4 -2 1 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 325 273 257 294 307 307 314 324 334 343 217 188 214 236 254 261 280 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.3 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.5 29.7 27.0 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 138 139 139 140 155 172 173 174 174 166 126 131 130 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.0 -49.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 64 66 68 64 65 67 69 70 72 63 58 54 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 9 10 14 14 17 16 18 19 22 19 14 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 22 38 37 43 34 46 26 36 21 53 42 32 3 -19 -29 -66 -68 200 MB DIV 28 38 46 57 46 47 42 52 33 45 73 96 58 48 5 -7 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 6 -3 -8 2 2 10 LAND (KM) 30 23 10 -5 -17 -37 -38 9 120 324 301 -5 -53 -84 71 347 572 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.0 21.1 21.7 22.7 24.5 26.9 30.0 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.7 86.9 87.0 87.2 87.2 87.2 87.1 87.1 86.6 85.7 83.8 81.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 1 2 2 1 1 4 7 11 15 18 17 16 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 24 24 23 24 24 24 38 173 72 52 8 16 6 12 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. 31. 28. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 10. 8. 10. 12. 15. 9. 2. -3. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 17. 23. 34. 35. 41. 46. 49. 42. 33. 26. 21. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.0 86.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 17.8% 13.2% 4.9% 0.8% 5.9% 4.6% 3.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 1.8% 6.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 23 24 25 26 31 32 39 43 40 31 28 29 24 20 18HR AGO 20 19 21 20 21 22 23 28 29 36 40 37 28 25 26 21 17 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 16 17 18 23 24 31 35 32 23 20 21 16 DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT