* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 58 58 58 55 52 51 47 44 43 38 33 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 58 58 58 55 52 51 47 44 43 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 43 45 45 45 44 42 41 40 39 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 2 2 5 5 6 8 9 6 6 12 21 26 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 41 6 36 38 138 150 203 221 235 245 249 233 264 262 269 269 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.7 26.7 25.9 25.5 24.7 25.1 24.3 23.8 23.2 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 141 131 123 118 111 115 106 101 95 101 100 101 106 109 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 71 68 64 62 57 52 47 41 39 39 35 32 31 28 24 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 23 23 22 21 21 19 19 17 15 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 85 72 57 54 45 49 42 66 80 87 101 108 101 94 78 60 55 200 MB DIV 125 109 70 59 59 61 14 -6 -17 -13 -16 -6 -9 0 13 -9 12 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 1 0 3 1 3 0 6 4 2 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 1171 1125 1091 1114 1144 1265 1366 1528 1756 1964 2167 1959 1704 1526 1380 1213 1005 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 27 37 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 28. 28. 28. 25. 22. 21. 17. 14. 13. 8. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 117.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.3% 18.6% 15.8% 0.0% 20.9% 16.9% 12.8% Logistic: 2.2% 14.1% 9.7% 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 12.6% 9.7% 6.2% 0.3% 7.3% 5.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##