* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 92 97 101 104 103 102 96 89 82 70 66 71 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 92 97 101 104 103 102 96 89 82 70 66 71 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 88 92 97 105 111 112 107 98 91 84 72 54 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 5 6 8 5 18 17 15 12 24 38 67 92 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -8 -9 -3 1 4 19 11 -16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 213 216 88 130 329 29 307 271 273 253 274 236 234 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.0 28.3 27.8 27.0 27.5 25.6 15.2 15.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 164 160 163 165 151 141 135 127 135 115 74 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -48.8 -48.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 63 62 56 61 60 61 61 64 57 47 41 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 23 23 26 25 28 29 30 31 30 29 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 18 32 35 13 30 38 52 48 55 66 47 -43 -27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 38 11 6 25 -10 18 27 5 -17 8 0 40 43 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -5 -1 3 3 0 3 8 6 6 -10 -60 -107 -80 -160 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 538 572 637 667 764 886 757 718 764 723 663 559 377 638 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.0 24.4 25.2 26.0 27.5 29.0 30.9 32.4 34.3 36.5 38.9 41.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.3 67.5 67.8 68.3 68.9 69.7 70.0 69.8 69.0 67.5 64.9 60.5 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 9 8 9 9 10 13 18 25 26 25 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 64 55 40 37 46 53 26 18 15 11 19 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -23. -25. -26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 19. 23. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 4. 8. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. 5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 28. 27. 21. 14. 7. -5. -9. -4. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.5 67.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.35 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 42.9% 32.5% 23.5% 13.9% 22.7% 22.8% 23.3% Logistic: 12.5% 36.3% 28.9% 18.9% 7.5% 20.3% 11.5% 8.4% Bayesian: 12.5% 15.4% 8.9% 4.8% 2.3% 3.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 15.6% 31.5% 23.4% 15.7% 7.9% 15.5% 11.6% 10.6% DTOPS: 31.0% 78.0% 58.0% 46.0% 35.0% 99.0% 86.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 23( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 12( 17) 1( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 86 92 97 101 104 103 102 96 89 82 70 66 71 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 85 90 94 97 96 95 89 82 75 63 59 64 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 82 86 89 88 87 81 74 67 55 51 56 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 74 77 76 75 69 62 55 43 39 44 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 86 77 71 67 70 69 68 62 55 48 36 32 37 DIS DIS