* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 33 35 37 35 34 31 32 37 44 52 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 33 35 37 35 34 31 32 37 44 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 27 26 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 17 12 11 19 8 16 14 22 28 23 28 15 23 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -5 0 -1 6 0 5 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 264 275 306 303 296 324 311 353 2 358 340 309 289 294 261 236 150 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 24.4 20.9 14.6 13.8 13.1 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 150 149 149 152 146 142 140 136 133 107 91 77 74 72 69 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.0 -52.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 69 70 72 74 72 67 65 60 65 71 64 56 50 37 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -64 -66 -71 -69 -75 -69 -81 -92 -118 -123 -86 -61 -47 -14 -29 -32 200 MB DIV 18 13 4 20 37 -4 -8 -4 -9 -15 54 78 85 17 21 -35 -70 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -6 -3 -6 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 16 39 37 55 61 57 -29 LAND (KM) 1520 1527 1523 1535 1565 1616 1687 1621 1476 1273 1002 643 792 1410 735 143 179 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.8 30.8 31.7 32.9 34.7 37.6 41.3 45.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.4 51.1 51.7 52.1 53.0 53.4 54.2 54.8 55.3 54.1 50.0 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 7 5 6 8 12 19 31 39 41 34 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 32 27 24 21 15 13 16 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 14. 15. 13. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 9. 6. 7. 12. 19. 27. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.5 49.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 15.4% 10.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 20.5% 11.4% 5.9% 2.4% 14.3% 20.4% 26.9% Bayesian: 2.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 13.5% 7.6% 4.4% 0.8% 5.0% 10.7% 9.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 29 30 33 35 37 35 34 31 32 37 44 52 55 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 30 32 34 32 31 28 29 34 41 49 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 26 28 30 28 27 24 25 30 37 45 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 19 21 23 21 20 17 18 23 30 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT