* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 08/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 47 55 61 67 72 78 69 56 50 45 42 35 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 47 55 61 67 72 65 40 31 28 27 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 51 56 52 35 29 27 27 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 12 12 10 14 14 12 5 10 19 30 41 43 41 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 -2 1 2 0 1 0 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 297 262 302 318 319 311 319 317 276 229 212 235 228 241 246 258 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 29.3 30.2 30.7 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.1 29.7 29.1 24.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 137 137 140 155 170 172 173 173 172 173 165 153 100 129 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -49.7 -48.7 -49.0 -49.3 -49.5 -50.0 -50.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 2 2 0 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 67 63 66 64 69 67 68 59 54 48 47 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 13 15 14 17 19 20 22 28 24 18 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 43 40 58 31 34 45 58 62 67 24 37 0 -22 -57 -26 200 MB DIV 38 61 62 39 57 63 38 27 44 59 99 69 53 19 16 2 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 5 6 12 19 13 2 0 7 -1 24 LAND (KM) 67 58 58 48 48 48 110 222 404 254 -41 -278 -257 -233 -117 49 195 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.6 22.5 23.6 25.3 27.6 30.3 32.6 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.2 86.2 86.3 86.3 86.4 86.6 86.8 86.8 86.3 85.4 84.0 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 0 1 3 5 7 11 13 14 12 13 12 9 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 31 29 29 29 42 81 165 67 47 5 5 5 4 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 28. 26. 23. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 21. 15. 4. 0. -4. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 30. 36. 42. 47. 53. 44. 31. 25. 20. 17. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.1 86.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 18.2% 12.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 32.3% 26.0% 14.3% 2.9% 14.1% 15.1% 16.2% Bayesian: 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 4.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 4.9% Consensus: 6.2% 17.8% 13.9% 9.0% 1.1% 4.9% 9.2% 7.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 08/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 42 47 55 61 67 72 65 40 31 28 27 29 23 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 37 42 50 56 62 67 60 35 26 23 22 24 18 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 35 43 49 55 60 53 28 19 16 15 17 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 32 38 44 49 42 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT