* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 08/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 48 51 51 50 49 50 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 48 51 51 50 49 50 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 39 39 38 37 36 35 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 3 2 2 7 6 7 7 6 5 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 1 -2 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 21 49 161 72 124 219 233 259 294 325 291 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.9 26.2 25.5 25.0 25.2 25.0 24.3 23.7 24.3 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 133 126 119 114 117 114 106 100 106 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 66 62 57 52 47 42 40 38 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 21 22 21 20 19 17 16 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 63 52 49 47 44 41 64 59 69 82 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 71 51 52 55 38 -18 -7 -18 -10 -29 -15 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -2 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1184 1189 1190 1235 1289 1397 1550 1795 2029 2161 1894 1660 1468 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 13 14 12 12 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 28 22 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 21. 20. 19. 20. 18. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 117.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 20.9% 17.1% 14.2% 0.0% 18.6% 15.0% 9.2% Logistic: 3.5% 23.1% 15.2% 4.6% 1.4% 2.0% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 15.0% 10.9% 6.3% 0.5% 6.9% 5.1% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 08/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##