* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 89 93 100 103 105 104 97 90 82 87 91 93 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 89 93 100 103 105 104 97 90 82 87 91 93 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 84 88 92 102 109 110 106 97 91 87 85 66 52 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 4 6 8 5 10 5 15 15 7 11 9 49 67 61 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -7 -5 2 7 21 17 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 182 61 115 141 13 325 296 284 292 298 292 250 226 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.8 16.1 16.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 159 161 163 161 151 140 135 129 127 128 78 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -49.8 -49.3 -49.1 -47.9 -46.2 -43.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 61 63 61 63 61 63 62 66 62 50 32 20 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 23 27 28 30 32 32 32 31 40 44 44 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 27 36 40 37 35 47 41 56 66 63 91 113 51 112 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 15 23 41 30 10 26 12 27 -1 -5 34 25 10 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 1 3 4 0 11 8 5 -3 12 -16 -18 -90 -24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 517 571 623 636 658 772 847 750 695 798 837 822 668 465 917 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.3 27.7 29.4 30.9 32.8 34.4 35.7 37.7 40.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.3 68.6 69.1 69.5 70.0 70.1 69.9 69.0 67.1 64.1 59.5 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 13 17 24 30 35 36 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 45 37 36 43 45 48 26 16 13 14 4 6 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -23. -25. -27. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 23. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 10. 9. 20. 25. 23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 30. 29. 22. 15. 7. 12. 16. 18. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.9 67.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 34.0% 22.4% 17.7% 11.6% 17.3% 19.9% 20.2% Logistic: 5.7% 26.8% 19.2% 9.0% 4.0% 12.1% 8.7% 6.4% Bayesian: 2.5% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 7.2% 21.8% 14.6% 9.1% 5.3% 10.1% 9.7% 8.9% DTOPS: 31.0% 69.0% 43.0% 36.0% 28.0% 79.0% 76.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 14( 26) 22( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 7( 10) 4( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 84 89 93 100 103 105 104 97 90 82 87 91 93 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 88 95 98 100 99 92 85 77 82 86 88 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 87 90 92 91 84 77 69 74 78 80 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 76 79 81 80 73 66 58 63 67 69 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 84 75 69 65 68 70 69 62 55 47 52 56 58 DIS DIS