* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102023 08/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 50 56 61 66 68 66 56 47 41 36 34 28 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 50 56 61 66 54 36 30 28 30 25 23 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 43 48 52 57 61 54 35 29 27 29 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 12 9 8 15 8 7 15 26 40 43 52 47 45 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 237 296 316 330 312 339 301 268 215 226 224 242 246 259 266 276 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 31.0 30.8 30.6 31.3 30.6 29.2 29.9 26.1 28.6 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 139 139 145 171 172 173 173 172 156 168 114 144 131 126 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.0 -49.1 -49.4 -50.1 -50.6 -51.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 5 0 1 0 1 2 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 66 66 63 63 66 71 67 56 44 41 39 34 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 15 15 16 16 19 22 23 20 17 14 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 50 58 56 28 30 31 50 27 39 28 -14 -35 -45 -42 -47 200 MB DIV 58 53 18 33 56 39 52 9 78 56 76 23 13 -25 -1 6 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 10 2 1 1 -4 0 -1 -1 9 LAND (KM) 46 52 58 56 59 91 155 332 192 -64 -131 -165 -59 29 198 313 374 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.0 21.4 23.3 25.3 27.9 30.5 32.9 34.7 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.2 86.2 86.2 86.2 85.9 85.5 85.6 84.8 83.6 82.2 80.2 77.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 0 1 1 6 10 12 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 31 30 30 39 107 88 41 7 6 4 5 0 53 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. 17. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 4. 7. 11. 12. 6. 0. -5. -9. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 26. 31. 36. 38. 36. 26. 17. 11. 6. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 86.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 19.7% 12.8% 9.6% 7.1% 11.4% 14.2% 29.6% Logistic: 6.7% 35.1% 30.4% 17.7% 3.4% 15.9% 15.7% 31.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% 5.7% Consensus: 4.5% 18.6% 14.7% 9.3% 3.5% 9.2% 10.5% 22.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 TEN 08/27/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 46 50 56 61 66 54 36 30 28 30 25 23 17 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 45 51 56 61 49 31 25 23 25 20 18 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 38 44 49 54 42 24 18 16 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 34 39 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT