* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102023 08/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 43 44 45 47 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 43 44 45 47 45 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 30 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 3 3 4 7 7 6 7 6 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0 -3 0 -3 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 31 25 4 35 182 226 245 276 342 271 307 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.3 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.8 25.2 25.1 24.5 23.9 24.6 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 137 128 123 119 112 117 115 109 102 109 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 63 63 58 51 46 43 42 40 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 20 21 20 19 19 19 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 46 43 43 40 45 56 64 79 86 87 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 57 48 49 52 1 -10 -21 -14 -10 -9 -27 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -2 0 0 2 -1 0 0 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1166 1195 1211 1263 1322 1461 1635 1868 2144 2041 1785 1551 1333 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 25 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 15. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 118.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 TEN 08/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 19.5% 15.5% 12.4% 0.0% 16.7% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.8% 5.8% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 TEN 08/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##