* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 87 92 97 102 105 103 99 93 95 103 99 84 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 87 92 97 102 105 103 99 93 95 103 99 84 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 82 86 91 100 108 110 104 96 93 96 82 53 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 6 5 7 12 8 12 6 21 31 66 70 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 10 20 3 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 86 127 154 314 32 304 267 296 281 337 242 228 214 174 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.7 27.9 27.5 27.7 27.4 17.8 16.4 14.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 161 165 165 154 147 136 132 137 135 79 76 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.2 -50.2 -49.4 -49.1 -48.9 -47.2 -45.6 -44.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.8 1.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 59 56 60 59 61 64 66 56 36 33 29 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 23 24 26 29 32 32 32 33 37 47 45 34 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 38 32 19 36 21 31 44 54 75 106 78 83 134 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 14 27 12 0 14 34 18 14 -17 4 37 9 22 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 4 3 0 4 3 3 4 14 5 20 -96 -83 -18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 597 614 653 701 843 792 738 747 833 830 797 509 665 1020 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.3 27.0 28.5 30.1 31.7 33.5 35.1 36.8 39.3 43.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.7 69.2 69.6 70.0 70.3 70.1 69.3 68.0 65.4 61.3 55.8 49.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 16 22 28 30 29 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 37 36 44 50 51 34 21 13 11 19 15 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 23. 25. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 11. 11. 11. 18. 30. 26. 10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 28. 24. 18. 20. 28. 24. 9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.4 68.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 28.5% 18.6% 15.1% 11.6% 17.6% 19.8% 21.3% Logistic: 5.3% 24.0% 17.6% 6.3% 3.2% 11.0% 6.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 5.5% 19.1% 12.8% 7.3% 5.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.8% DTOPS: 21.0% 79.0% 68.0% 50.0% 14.0% 41.0% 50.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 13( 25) 20( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 0( 3) 2( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 83 87 92 97 102 105 103 99 93 95 103 99 84 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 82 87 92 97 100 98 94 88 90 98 94 79 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 80 85 90 93 91 87 81 83 91 87 72 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 75 80 83 81 77 71 73 81 77 62 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 83 74 68 64 69 72 70 66 60 62 70 66 51 DIS DIS