* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102023 08/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 52 55 63 66 70 62 52 41 38 34 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 52 55 63 66 52 35 30 26 23 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 45 49 53 60 46 33 29 28 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 7 15 13 11 6 14 22 29 30 29 29 33 31 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 0 0 2 0 -3 0 4 -3 2 4 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 314 347 357 329 330 325 321 236 223 214 234 230 238 242 249 258 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.9 29.9 29.4 28.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 144 144 147 171 172 173 173 169 159 144 157 151 135 137 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.3 -49.7 -48.9 -49.3 -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 -50.4 -51.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 7 1 1 0 1 2 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 66 65 65 64 72 70 66 54 57 56 55 47 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 15 18 17 20 21 25 22 18 13 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 52 61 48 35 24 53 43 42 21 7 -42 -29 -40 -22 -12 200 MB DIV 52 24 36 66 43 41 8 50 67 102 55 42 26 33 3 38 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -2 3 4 7 5 4 0 5 1 -2 -2 10 LAND (KM) 30 41 52 49 48 86 209 356 152 -137 -77 -52 34 139 209 339 550 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.5 20.6 21.8 23.5 25.6 28.4 31.0 33.2 34.4 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.8 86.7 86.7 86.6 86.5 86.1 86.0 85.6 84.6 83.0 80.7 78.3 76.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 4 8 10 12 15 15 13 11 7 4 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 30 29 29 38 108 71 41 6 12 31 22 76 69 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 21. 18. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 8. 13. 9. 1. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 22. 25. 33. 36. 40. 32. 22. 11. 8. 4. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.5 86.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 16.7% 11.5% 8.7% 6.2% 10.4% 13.0% 27.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.0% 11.5% 3.9% 0.8% 5.3% 8.9% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 5.3% Consensus: 2.9% 12.0% 7.8% 4.3% 2.4% 5.3% 7.3% 18.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 TEN 08/27/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 45 52 55 63 66 52 35 30 26 23 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 41 48 51 59 62 48 31 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 41 44 52 55 41 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 33 41 44 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT