* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102023 08/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 52 60 68 69 56 47 41 35 30 24 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 47 52 60 68 41 33 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 46 52 35 30 27 22 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 14 15 11 9 7 20 30 27 31 27 21 22 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 2 6 0 2 -1 -4 3 1 2 2 5 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 356 353 340 336 335 328 338 246 234 224 238 242 272 269 285 273 271 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 30.4 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 153 148 156 172 173 173 173 150 146 140 131 136 139 150 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -49.7 -49.1 -48.9 -49.4 -49.3 -49.7 -50.2 -50.7 -51.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 0 0 0 1 2 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 65 64 64 67 73 69 62 57 59 60 59 59 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 16 18 21 20 23 27 29 22 18 17 14 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 64 44 34 39 21 59 40 52 24 -22 -15 -35 1 6 42 200 MB DIV 30 26 68 74 47 34 12 78 66 94 70 55 24 8 -12 25 61 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 1 4 9 3 0 0 -11 1 1 2 2 -2 LAND (KM) 119 136 152 122 99 93 223 229 34 -72 -17 40 213 320 376 645 1127 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.8 19.8 20.3 20.7 22.0 24.0 26.7 29.4 31.7 33.4 34.4 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.1 85.9 85.9 85.9 85.8 85.7 84.8 83.7 82.0 79.4 76.6 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 6 8 12 14 14 13 13 12 8 4 7 18 24 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 39 38 37 55 160 55 66 10 22 17 41 18 18 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 8. 14. 16. 6. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 22. 30. 38. 39. 26. 17. 11. 5. -0. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 86.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.8% 10.6% 8.0% 5.6% 10.2% 12.9% 27.7% Logistic: 6.1% 30.5% 16.1% 5.7% 3.0% 17.4% 22.3% 43.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 6.4% Consensus: 3.3% 15.9% 9.0% 4.6% 2.9% 9.2% 11.9% 25.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 TEN 08/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 TEN 08/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 41 47 52 60 68 41 33 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 44 49 57 65 38 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 38 43 51 59 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 35 43 51 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT