* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 39 38 38 38 38 39 38 35 35 33 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 39 38 38 38 38 39 38 35 35 33 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 38 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 1 3 8 8 6 5 4 10 8 17 22 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 1 -1 1 -2 4 3 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 25 8 244 242 225 233 264 304 262 295 282 288 282 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.5 24.9 25.5 26.2 25.2 24.2 24.6 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 124 120 119 113 120 127 116 105 108 103 102 102 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 59 57 52 46 43 44 41 39 39 44 45 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 22 22 21 21 19 18 17 16 13 13 12 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 47 48 41 51 67 74 83 84 91 71 53 33 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 68 73 49 13 -16 -26 -14 1 7 -17 12 1 -10 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 0 2 -3 -3 0 3 2 3 2 4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1258 1287 1320 1395 1456 1627 1847 2105 2120 1856 1628 1466 1395 1288 1180 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.0 121.8 123.0 124.1 126.6 129.3 132.3 134.8 137.3 139.4 140.9 141.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 9 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 13. 11. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 120.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##