* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 95 100 104 106 111 107 102 92 79 78 81 78 79 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 90 95 100 104 106 111 107 102 92 79 78 81 78 79 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 90 95 100 104 112 116 110 100 89 79 73 66 50 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 8 6 1 12 9 7 3 18 4 46 70 67 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -6 -6 0 3 5 25 15 -2 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 128 360 14 307 284 248 292 337 2 233 247 253 270 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.2 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 20.9 21.4 20.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 169 170 170 167 158 155 137 133 132 127 124 85 87 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -49.4 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -48.5 -49.3 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 59 59 59 61 63 64 64 53 32 24 22 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 24 25 26 30 30 31 30 27 32 38 36 36 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 9 10 15 -7 16 8 34 46 44 -8 -67 -63 -91 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 9 -2 11 3 21 35 -10 -18 -50 5 -35 -36 -32 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 0 -3 7 4 4 6 7 14 -9 -46 -101 -37 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 592 628 673 747 787 745 687 734 878 871 856 761 534 558 804 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.8 28.5 30.0 31.5 33.0 34.5 36.1 37.8 39.8 42.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.2 70.7 70.8 71.0 70.9 70.2 68.4 65.8 62.3 58.3 54.5 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 12 15 17 18 18 18 19 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 55 51 45 48 35 24 14 11 12 8 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -38. -43. -46. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 24. 26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 6. 7. 5. -0. 6. 13. 10. 9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 26. 22. 17. 7. -6. -7. -4. -7. -6. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 25.7 69.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 39.1% 28.7% 22.6% 18.8% 24.6% 21.8% 0.0% Logistic: 13.1% 31.8% 24.9% 12.1% 6.6% 15.3% 8.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 7.9% 35.0% 16.2% 11.0% 1.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 35.3% 23.3% 15.2% 9.0% 14.2% 10.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 37.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 48.0% 33.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 17( 25) 26( 45) 27( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 6( 19) 27( 41) 4( 43) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 95 100 104 106 111 107 102 92 79 78 81 78 79 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 89 94 98 100 105 101 96 86 73 72 75 72 73 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 90 92 97 93 88 78 65 64 67 64 65 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 79 81 86 82 77 67 54 53 56 53 54 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 68 73 69 64 54 41 40 43 40 41 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 71 76 72 67 57 44 43 46 43 44 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 90 95 86 80 76 81 77 72 62 49 48 51 48 49 DIS DIS