* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 60 69 75 77 69 57 49 40 33 28 25 19 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 60 69 75 55 38 32 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 59 67 51 36 33 27 21 18 16 15 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 13 13 13 12 7 12 25 30 33 30 32 32 21 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 0 1 -2 1 0 0 0 2 0 -3 -3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 7 3 335 326 321 326 280 246 220 235 228 241 237 248 244 234 202 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 30.7 31.0 30.9 30.6 29.7 28.8 29.3 27.4 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 156 159 171 172 173 173 165 149 157 129 132 128 134 142 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.1 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -48.9 -49.1 -49.8 -50.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 1 2 0 1 2 5 7 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 62 66 64 72 73 64 53 50 49 48 50 48 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 16 18 20 20 23 25 28 26 22 20 17 14 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 55 64 38 35 47 24 54 61 51 45 23 -26 -8 -11 30 16 -8 200 MB DIV 36 79 59 37 53 16 55 83 91 67 48 14 26 7 39 15 53 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 1 1 9 3 12 4 -6 -3 0 4 -1 1 7 LAND (KM) 155 153 139 87 46 118 272 142 -112 -41 18 126 313 498 655 851 1027 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.7 23.4 25.7 27.9 30.9 32.9 34.0 34.7 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.5 85.3 85.3 85.3 84.9 84.7 84.3 82.7 80.4 77.7 74.9 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 7 10 11 14 15 13 12 11 9 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 48 59 65 72 147 47 42 5 29 21 65 12 20 12 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 15. 11. 4. 1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 34. 40. 42. 34. 22. 14. 5. -2. -7. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 85.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 15.7% 10.7% 8.4% 5.8% 11.2% 14.1% 23.2% Logistic: 3.1% 9.7% 4.9% 3.8% 1.0% 7.7% 17.4% 23.3% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 2.1% Consensus: 3.0% 8.7% 5.3% 4.1% 2.3% 6.4% 10.8% 16.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 8.0% 23.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 49 55 60 69 75 55 38 32 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 55 64 70 50 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 47 56 62 42 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 36 45 51 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT