* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 36 34 33 33 34 31 29 27 25 25 22 21 18 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 36 34 33 33 34 31 29 27 25 25 22 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 35 32 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 4 7 8 8 7 6 8 10 15 23 33 36 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 2 1 0 -4 -7 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 12 3 262 236 235 235 238 284 285 290 295 272 291 281 278 272 268 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.2 24.2 23.7 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 119 117 116 114 116 116 105 98 104 102 102 103 103 108 113 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 57 55 48 43 41 40 38 37 39 37 35 32 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 22 20 20 19 19 16 15 13 12 13 11 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 40 33 35 63 74 88 95 100 80 66 42 46 26 33 14 200 MB DIV 74 70 49 17 -4 0 -14 -32 1 5 -12 -12 2 -9 -3 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 0 4 3 2 2 3 5 4 6 7 LAND (KM) 1259 1309 1364 1419 1474 1674 1952 2211 1961 1770 1631 1482 1335 1208 1083 936 748 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.8 122.7 123.8 124.8 127.7 130.9 133.8 136.2 138.0 139.3 140.7 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 12 14 15 12 10 8 6 7 6 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. -0. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -11. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -13. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 120.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##