* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 92 97 101 105 105 100 94 83 79 84 80 72 58 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 92 97 101 105 105 100 94 83 79 84 80 72 58 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 87 91 95 100 107 107 98 89 82 79 76 59 42 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 10 8 4 8 7 6 2 14 15 7 41 72 72 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -6 0 1 4 14 17 11 -1 -11 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 13 20 16 286 280 279 32 2 33 292 254 264 270 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.6 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.9 27.0 22.3 22.1 19.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 169 163 156 146 135 132 130 126 127 92 91 82 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.6 -50.0 -49.3 -49.5 -51.7 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 8 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 60 60 63 61 63 70 66 53 48 39 32 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 27 28 31 31 30 30 28 31 39 40 35 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 2 1 6 0 -6 -3 2 7 13 -52 -97 -81 -81 -103 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 0 0 14 26 26 16 -25 -49 -23 4 -13 -10 -29 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -2 7 5 2 11 1 22 25 -7 -12 -15 37 57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 589 648 712 778 805 741 734 830 955 956 927 781 642 706 955 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.2 29.0 30.4 32.0 33.6 34.7 36.0 37.6 39.6 41.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.3 70.5 70.8 71.0 71.1 70.5 69.1 67.0 63.6 60.1 56.7 52.9 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 14 15 16 17 19 20 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 56 47 45 48 29 20 13 13 12 8 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -22. -28. -33. -39. -45. -49. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. 23. 26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. 4. 14. 15. 7. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 20. 15. 9. -2. -6. -1. -5. -13. -27. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 26.0 70.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.4% 14.8% 12.2% 9.5% 14.2% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 14.2% 9.1% 3.0% 1.6% 5.0% 4.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 6.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 14.4% 8.5% 5.3% 3.8% 6.5% 6.5% 0.3% DTOPS: 14.0% 67.0% 51.0% 37.0% 8.0% 28.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 13( 22) 23( 40) 27( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 5( 15) 7( 20) 3( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 92 97 101 105 105 100 94 83 79 84 80 72 58 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 88 93 97 101 101 96 90 79 75 80 76 68 54 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 86 90 94 94 89 83 72 68 73 69 61 47 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 79 83 83 78 72 61 57 62 58 50 36 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 70 70 65 59 48 44 49 45 37 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 71 71 66 60 49 45 50 46 38 24 DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 92 83 77 73 73 68 62 51 47 52 48 40 26 DIS DIS