* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 66 73 78 85 90 83 71 58 45 36 34 33 30 26 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 66 73 78 85 72 56 44 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 63 68 76 86 77 60 55 47 39 33 31 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 14 13 10 8 6 20 24 22 33 24 16 8 7 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 6 2 1 -1 1 -1 2 2 2 0 0 -2 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 360 327 335 329 317 341 271 232 217 235 229 235 230 217 172 158 195 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.7 30.8 31.0 29.5 29.5 29.2 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.9 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 164 167 171 172 173 173 162 162 156 131 135 131 134 142 145 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -49.3 -48.6 -48.7 -48.6 -48.6 -49.4 -50.2 -51.2 -51.7 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 6 6 2 2 1 4 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 63 63 67 65 66 72 70 61 51 46 47 50 54 51 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 20 22 21 24 29 28 25 23 20 17 16 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 45 45 52 41 16 53 40 58 51 5 10 14 6 -11 7 -1 200 MB DIV 58 58 44 70 57 14 74 25 66 61 7 11 9 11 47 46 32 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 0 0 1 12 3 -9 -11 -22 -13 -1 0 4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 193 191 151 60 28 147 158 -50 52 81 166 360 555 744 918 1026 1053 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.9 26.7 29.8 31.8 33.4 34.6 34.8 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.2 85.0 84.9 84.8 84.6 84.0 82.9 80.4 77.4 74.4 71.9 69.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 9 9 11 15 15 15 14 12 9 9 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 57 68 96 111 133 44 38 21 27 80 15 18 13 11 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. -0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 7. 14. 12. 7. 3. -2. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 19. 13. 7. -0. -7. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 28. 33. 40. 45. 38. 26. 13. 0. -9. -11. -12. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.8 85.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 44.8% 30.3% 19.6% 11.3% 29.4% 36.8% 34.7% Logistic: 13.8% 41.9% 30.8% 26.6% 9.7% 32.7% 30.2% 26.0% Bayesian: 9.2% 12.3% 7.5% 9.2% 1.4% 6.9% 1.9% 0.8% Consensus: 10.2% 33.0% 22.9% 18.5% 7.5% 23.0% 23.0% 20.5% DTOPS: 10.0% 33.0% 11.0% 8.0% 3.0% 8.0% 43.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 15( 15) 16( 29) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 58 66 73 78 85 72 56 44 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 50 58 65 70 77 64 48 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 56 61 68 55 39 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 47 54 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT