* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/28/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 33 31 28 28 27 26 23 22 22 20 19 18 15 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 33 31 28 28 27 26 23 22 22 20 19 18 15 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 4 7 7 10 4 5 10 13 21 21 28 29 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 1 -4 -1 -5 -7 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 353 286 208 238 245 254 240 292 251 284 267 281 270 274 275 268 258 SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.9 25.3 24.8 24.5 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 117 115 113 117 112 109 99 102 103 101 102 103 103 107 111 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 53 51 45 43 44 40 39 37 37 35 33 32 25 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 24 23 21 19 18 17 16 14 13 13 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 28 34 51 74 82 87 97 92 71 60 52 38 35 32 29 200 MB DIV 61 51 24 9 3 -21 -11 -12 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 3 -4 -15 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 3 3 -6 1 -1 5 1 2 3 3 4 6 5 4 LAND (KM) 1329 1370 1393 1465 1543 1758 1995 2158 1904 1712 1565 1427 1310 1184 1069 944 828 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.9 123.8 125.0 126.2 129.0 131.7 134.3 136.7 138.5 139.9 141.2 142.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 10 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##