* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 110 112 112 113 109 106 95 87 91 89 70 66 54 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 105 110 112 112 113 109 106 95 87 91 89 70 66 54 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 106 111 113 114 115 109 99 90 86 86 73 46 32 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 8 15 9 4 4 16 19 18 50 74 53 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -3 4 0 10 12 11 7 -8 0 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 14 352 294 286 255 303 275 10 349 290 262 265 263 291 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 27.3 24.5 20.5 17.4 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 167 163 158 153 134 132 130 125 130 105 85 78 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -49.7 -49.5 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -49.6 -51.4 -49.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 62 62 62 63 66 65 48 44 42 33 39 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 30 30 32 29 31 40 43 32 28 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 10 5 -6 6 3 36 58 63 -39 -91 -82 -78 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 14 15 30 36 40 -2 34 -36 27 -27 9 -5 -25 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 8 5 2 7 3 13 14 29 -31 -9 -27 8 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 656 737 779 804 747 687 708 847 858 890 914 687 518 746 1192 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.2 29.9 31.6 33.4 34.8 36.2 37.3 38.4 40.6 44.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 70.9 71.1 71.1 71.0 70.1 68.5 65.8 62.4 58.8 55.1 51.3 47.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 10 12 14 16 15 17 21 24 27 27 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 45 47 46 36 24 12 10 13 7 13 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -0. -9. -19. -28. -38. -47. -53. -59. -63. -64. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. 10. 13. 17. 18. 23. 28. 30. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 2. 4. 16. 21. 3. -4. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 12. 13. 9. 6. -5. -13. -9. -11. -30. -34. -46. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.8 70.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.40 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 552.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 27.3% 21.0% 15.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 16.1% 10.4% 4.1% 1.7% 5.8% 5.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 21.5% 22.1% 8.0% 8.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.2% 21.8% 13.2% 9.2% 4.4% 2.1% 1.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 22.0% 14.0% 11.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 29( 45) 30( 61) 30( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 36( 44) 5( 46) 1( 47) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 105 110 112 112 113 109 106 95 87 91 89 70 66 54 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 104 106 106 107 103 100 89 81 85 83 64 60 48 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 98 99 95 92 81 73 77 75 56 52 40 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 91 87 84 73 65 69 67 48 44 32 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 78 75 64 56 60 58 39 35 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 105 96 90 87 86 82 79 68 60 64 62 43 39 27 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 105 110 101 95 91 87 84 73 65 69 67 48 44 32 DIS DIS