* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 29 28 25 24 24 22 21 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 28 29 28 25 24 24 22 21 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 29 27 25 24 22 21 21 21 20 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 4 6 8 8 1 9 11 17 21 23 28 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -7 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 211 227 213 226 239 270 266 250 293 283 287 270 269 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.8 25.1 25.4 24.5 23.6 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 116 113 112 115 118 108 98 103 102 100 101 103 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 57 54 47 48 47 43 40 41 42 42 43 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 21 19 18 19 17 14 13 13 13 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 23 34 49 65 71 73 78 67 59 39 35 29 31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 27 5 -3 -6 -18 -23 -1 -8 -22 0 12 18 6 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 -5 0 1 0 0 3 3 5 6 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1362 1412 1459 1538 1620 1854 2084 2128 1881 1669 1522 1418 1345 1240 1103 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.6 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.6 125.7 126.9 129.9 132.5 134.6 136.9 138.9 140.3 141.3 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 13 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 122.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##