* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 133 134 130 128 121 116 108 96 90 86 75 60 53 55 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 133 134 130 128 121 116 108 96 90 86 75 60 53 49 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 134 137 134 130 123 109 98 91 89 73 47 31 27 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 11 8 13 2 3 6 41 71 65 47 14 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 1 23 23 4 4 16 -3 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 2 295 286 263 260 233 314 34 255 230 230 235 147 136 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.2 28.7 27.9 26.9 26.6 25.9 17.4 16.0 17.4 12.7 12.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 166 165 158 155 147 137 126 123 117 76 74 79 75 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -49.3 -49.5 -48.5 -47.0 -46.5 -47.2 -42.9 -48.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.6 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 62 63 62 65 65 52 30 29 28 32 48 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 29 31 33 30 30 37 43 38 25 20 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 0 -9 5 -1 41 51 85 159 -8 -37 -9 116 84 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 17 16 36 37 34 -3 -2 -11 1 -16 -9 -19 49 -164 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 7 2 2 4 6 2 17 -3 10 -125 -85 -3 -26 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 719 762 777 764 712 675 794 833 778 695 416 513 836 1075 0 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.7 30.6 32.2 33.9 35.8 37.9 40.5 43.3 46.3 49.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.9 71.1 71.3 71.0 70.7 69.7 67.3 64.0 60.0 55.4 50.7 46.1 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 11 15 18 20 22 22 22 31 44 47 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 47 46 37 26 21 18 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -7. -19. -35. -50. -65. -79. -86. -92. -93. -93. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 6. 11. 14. 19. 25. 34. 38. 42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. 1. 3. 3. -0. -4. -6. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 1. 1. 10. 19. 10. -10. -19. -23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 5. 3. -4. -9. -17. -29. -35. -39. -50. -65. -72. -70. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 27.5 70.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 684.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.7% 21.1% 15.5% 5.9% 1.3% 4.9% 4.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.2% 7.1% 5.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 48( 68) 43( 82) 34( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 71 77( 93) 26( 95) 1( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 133 134 130 128 121 116 108 96 90 86 75 60 53 49 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 125 121 119 112 107 99 87 81 77 66 51 44 40 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 115 108 103 95 83 77 73 62 47 40 36 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 113 106 101 93 81 75 71 60 45 38 34 DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 99 94 86 74 68 64 53 38 31 27 DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 133 124 118 115 110 105 97 85 79 75 64 49 42 38 DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 133 134 125 119 115 110 102 90 84 80 69 54 47 43 DIS DIS