* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 68 74 82 82 69 56 45 36 27 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 68 74 82 55 42 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 65 67 73 80 53 47 39 34 29 24 21 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 14 8 10 21 26 23 24 28 28 32 39 34 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 2 4 0 -3 0 1 4 1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 346 326 330 335 318 250 229 217 235 232 266 275 286 274 277 271 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.9 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.2 30.1 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 167 171 172 173 174 174 159 147 137 131 131 133 134 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -49.7 -48.9 -49.1 -49.4 -49.3 -49.8 -50.6 -50.9 -52.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 64 68 73 74 68 62 59 59 62 64 59 57 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 22 23 28 29 23 19 18 16 13 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 35 21 27 60 28 39 3 -17 -7 -17 -12 -27 -2 12 64 200 MB DIV 45 51 39 19 12 62 44 87 67 34 19 56 -1 19 4 37 41 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 -2 1 8 5 -7 -24 -21 -8 -1 0 0 1 -8 -19 LAND (KM) 147 78 30 94 157 231 11 11 74 223 487 710 857 935 997 1060 1097 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.8 23.7 26.3 29.4 32.0 33.6 34.4 34.7 34.7 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.2 85.2 85.1 85.1 84.6 83.4 80.8 77.3 73.8 70.5 68.0 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 11 15 16 17 16 14 12 9 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 90 86 92 127 147 52 61 30 23 45 18 17 13 16 16 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 19. 27. 27. 14. 1. -10. -19. -28. -35. -38. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.6 85.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 108.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% Logistic: 3.6% 9.8% 5.0% 6.3% 2.8% 20.4% 18.4% 4.8% Bayesian: 4.9% 4.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 2.8% 15.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.0% 7.2% 6.4% 6.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 40.0% 29.0% 18.0% 6.0% 42.0% 15.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 68 74 82 55 42 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 63 69 77 50 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 62 70 43 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 53 61 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT