* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 26 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 26 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 28 25 23 22 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 5 5 7 8 8 14 16 23 28 36 40 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -5 -7 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 276 235 242 252 256 296 261 277 280 271 263 271 271 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.9 25.0 24.8 23.9 23.5 24.1 24.2 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 114 112 113 114 111 101 96 102 103 100 103 104 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 54 50 49 51 48 50 44 43 42 43 43 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 19 35 38 52 56 56 54 41 31 25 14 15 2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 5 4 -9 -15 -5 -5 15 3 -9 1 13 2 -5 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 0 -4 0 -1 2 0 4 3 2 3 5 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1370 1429 1496 1589 1685 1932 2152 2028 1837 1688 1561 1435 1290 1185 1110 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.3 125.4 126.7 128.1 130.9 133.4 135.5 137.3 138.7 139.9 141.1 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 6 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -22. -25. -28. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 123.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.4 49.8 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##