* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 130 130 129 126 118 112 101 90 84 86 71 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 130 130 129 126 118 112 101 90 84 86 71 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 131 132 130 126 114 102 92 88 76 56 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 9 12 6 4 13 18 64 81 57 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 7 24 13 4 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 283 285 273 240 246 289 6 232 235 224 221 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.1 27.7 27.0 27.3 26.1 20.2 15.7 17.2 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 156 155 153 134 126 131 119 84 74 77 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -49.2 -49.2 -48.4 -46.7 -45.7 -44.8 -42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 63 62 64 67 62 44 33 29 33 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 29 31 31 31 30 31 39 45 35 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 -2 5 13 7 29 66 92 54 -30 -43 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 7 39 27 54 24 6 -23 51 -20 13 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 4 5 4 23 1 30 -22 -113 -24 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 764 810 732 697 672 691 777 741 626 397 455 807 1209 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 30.0 30.8 31.6 33.6 35.5 37.4 40.3 43.1 46.1 49.7 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.1 71.1 70.7 70.3 68.6 65.8 62.1 57.5 52.4 47.0 42.0 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 14 16 20 23 24 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 47 32 26 24 12 10 20 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -22. -38. -54. -71. -84. -91. -96. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. 1. 5. 10. 13. 21. 29. 39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 12. 20. 5. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 4. 1. -7. -13. -24. -35. -41. -39. -54. -67. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 28.2 71.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 729.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 43( 65) 40( 79) 32( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 10( 77) 2( 77) 0( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 130 130 129 126 118 112 101 90 84 86 71 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 124 123 120 112 106 95 84 78 80 65 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 120 117 109 103 92 81 75 77 62 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 104 98 87 76 70 72 57 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 98 92 81 70 64 66 51 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 130 121 115 112 108 102 91 80 74 76 61 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 130 130 121 115 111 105 94 83 77 79 64 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS