* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 76 81 86 76 63 52 42 31 24 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 76 81 61 43 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 72 79 62 51 43 37 33 28 24 21 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 11 7 13 19 24 23 25 33 43 44 42 41 55 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 2 0 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 315 328 322 321 285 238 220 233 226 235 256 283 273 273 255 253 247 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.6 30.9 30.9 30.6 29.3 29.6 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 167 171 172 172 173 174 159 164 137 134 133 132 134 133 129 126 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -48.8 -49.4 -49.2 -49.6 -50.0 -50.7 -52.0 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 10 8 7 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 66 71 75 71 59 59 54 56 52 50 48 48 47 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 23 25 25 30 24 19 17 16 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 54 44 33 30 52 52 49 24 1 -12 16 27 7 -22 -21 0 17 200 MB DIV 53 49 26 11 42 61 80 46 35 14 19 -7 -10 -17 49 10 -13 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 8 5 7 -10 -21 -11 -8 -2 -3 -5 -9 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 83 37 108 175 269 134 -105 -6 100 293 552 750 845 935 1011 1018 929 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.9 25.0 27.7 30.5 32.9 33.9 34.4 34.6 34.5 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.3 85.3 85.1 84.9 84.2 82.6 79.7 76.3 72.9 69.8 67.6 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 13 14 16 16 15 14 11 7 5 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 86 89 122 145 57 43 6 22 29 16 17 21 14 16 12 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 1. -7. -11. -14. -19. -21. -22. -25. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. -0. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 16. 3. -8. -18. -29. -36. -40. -44. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.2 85.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 99.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.62 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 39.8% 25.5% 20.9% 13.5% 20.8% 14.6% 14.8% Logistic: 7.3% 18.4% 11.2% 13.1% 6.4% 17.8% 12.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 5.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 21.1% 12.8% 11.6% 6.7% 13.1% 9.2% 5.3% DTOPS: 8.0% 39.0% 26.0% 12.0% 3.0% 22.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 8( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 5( 5) 6( 11) 2( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 76 81 61 43 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 72 77 57 39 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 65 70 50 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 60 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT