* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 28 26 25 22 21 20 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 28 26 25 22 21 20 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 23 22 20 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 4 8 9 8 11 13 19 22 24 31 36 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 288 295 270 281 281 292 279 293 269 268 257 274 269 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.6 23.6 24.1 24.1 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 112 118 110 103 98 97 102 102 100 103 105 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 52 49 52 50 51 49 44 40 38 39 38 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 17 18 16 15 13 13 13 14 12 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 25 27 32 45 51 51 42 32 26 25 14 4 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -6 -16 -18 -16 -4 -5 0 -12 11 16 4 -3 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 -1 -4 0 4 0 0 1 4 3 5 7 9 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1368 1438 1512 1627 1746 1968 2176 1962 1792 1655 1529 1403 1289 1153 1016 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.0 126.2 127.7 129.1 131.6 134.0 136.1 137.7 139.0 140.2 141.4 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. -12. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -19. -23. -26. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 123.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##