* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 71 75 83 84 73 60 49 37 28 22 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 71 75 83 47 41 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 68 72 80 47 45 39 34 29 26 23 20 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 13 6 8 15 25 27 28 27 33 44 46 40 37 36 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 0 -3 4 0 1 3 0 -4 -3 -5 -4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 329 335 340 289 254 225 213 231 225 243 244 257 255 251 245 238 246 SST (C) 29.9 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.9 31.2 30.4 29.2 29.5 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.8 28.6 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 172 172 173 173 173 157 162 136 137 134 130 133 144 142 135 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 -49.3 -49.8 -50.2 -51.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 0 1 1 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 68 72 74 72 63 55 55 54 52 51 46 48 49 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 21 22 22 26 27 21 18 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 23 26 47 53 34 45 25 -16 0 17 67 44 27 -6 14 24 200 MB DIV 34 8 6 50 72 37 97 27 18 2 27 -4 -24 23 51 54 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 8 8 2 -19 -15 -17 -5 -5 -7 -3 -3 -9 -12 LAND (KM) 22 78 145 253 241 55 -34 33 171 376 507 614 708 850 1024 1090 1035 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.8 23.7 24.9 26.1 29.0 31.6 33.5 34.2 34.2 33.9 33.8 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.0 84.9 84.8 84.6 83.6 81.6 78.6 74.7 72.0 70.6 69.4 68.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 16 14 8 5 5 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 96 131 146 54 50 69 39 26 88 14 18 16 15 12 20 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 4. 4. -3. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 15. 10. 5. -0. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 24. 13. 0. -11. -23. -32. -38. -42. -44. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.8 85.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 95.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.59 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 46.7% 32.4% 24.3% 22.4% 29.1% 15.5% 14.4% Logistic: 8.2% 24.9% 14.4% 14.6% 8.9% 23.4% 14.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 10.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 27.3% 16.3% 13.4% 10.5% 17.9% 10.2% 4.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 58.0% 40.0% 32.0% 11.0% 22.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 9( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 8( 8) 6( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 67 71 75 83 47 41 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 71 79 43 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 64 72 36 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 62 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT