* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902023 08/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 47 58 71 80 86 90 90 91 91 88 84 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 47 58 71 80 86 90 90 91 91 88 84 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 50 61 72 81 82 82 82 83 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 14 11 10 8 6 6 5 9 7 3 2 3 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 5 2 -1 -1 3 6 10 9 7 SHEAR DIR 73 90 99 95 85 98 94 117 48 16 353 18 12 359 303 294 309 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 150 152 158 159 157 156 157 156 153 151 148 148 152 157 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 59 59 61 55 54 53 58 58 60 58 59 57 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 14 16 19 32 37 41 28 9 1 -6 -10 -4 -3 6 0 200 MB DIV 68 80 70 38 42 33 36 43 38 35 35 32 25 10 -23 -34 -36 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 -3 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1326 1263 1229 1223 1228 1292 1409 1531 1665 1771 1807 1840 1893 2011 2206 2467 2603 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.5 152.5 153.6 154.8 157.3 160.1 162.8 165.2 167.3 169.3 171.0 172.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 13 23 57 57 44 50 66 73 63 64 23 18 29 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 14. 26. 38. 47. 53. 58. 62. 64. 65. 64. 63. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 46. 55. 61. 65. 65. 66. 66. 63. 60. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 150.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 25.9% 9.2% 4.7% 2.1% 2.8% 3.1% 53.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 15.2% 8.2% 1.6% 0.7% 7.3% 6.8% 17.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##