* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 30 29 27 25 23 21 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 30 29 27 25 23 21 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 22 21 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 7 8 8 7 9 16 24 21 28 26 30 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 0 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 277 256 269 279 293 255 280 270 268 266 263 263 252 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.6 25.3 24.7 24.0 23.4 23.3 23.8 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 111 110 117 111 103 96 94 99 101 99 99 101 104 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 49 49 51 49 49 45 42 41 41 41 39 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 18 18 17 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 27 23 26 32 49 53 50 41 31 24 24 29 30 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 4 -10 -20 -4 -1 20 -13 -10 0 5 0 8 6 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 -5 0 4 -3 0 1 3 2 3 6 7 13 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1404 1494 1587 1711 1838 2054 2073 1874 1715 1590 1475 1360 1245 1119 1004 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.3 127.6 129.0 130.4 132.9 135.0 136.9 138.4 139.6 140.7 141.8 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 125.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##