* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 119 117 114 108 97 85 72 72 64 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 119 119 117 114 108 97 85 72 72 64 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 118 116 113 109 101 92 81 72 57 45 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 12 13 6 20 9 25 63 71 48 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -6 -4 -1 0 10 13 18 3 12 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 259 237 273 292 319 13 40 238 223 211 220 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.0 21.8 17.6 16.5 17.1 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 155 147 138 131 131 129 90 76 74 76 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 -48.2 -46.1 -46.8 -47.6 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 61 63 66 63 47 41 31 27 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 28 28 36 32 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 4 -6 -7 16 39 60 132 108 -24 -37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 25 46 38 10 -6 -35 38 77 20 -11 -11 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 8 4 0 12 4 8 28 -27 -100 -2 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 755 716 686 686 701 822 784 705 462 443 662 939 1261 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.2 33.0 34.9 36.9 39.4 42.5 44.9 47.0 50.0 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.6 70.3 69.5 68.8 66.2 62.4 57.8 52.6 47.9 43.9 40.2 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 16 20 23 23 19 18 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 26 25 20 14 12 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -2. -11. -23. -38. -55. -71. -84. -91. -95. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 3. 7. 13. 22. 29. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. 7. 0. -6. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -23. -35. -48. -48. -56. -62. -67. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 29.8 71.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 735.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 30( 69) 28( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 1( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 119 119 117 114 108 97 85 72 72 64 58 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 119 117 114 108 97 85 72 72 64 58 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 111 105 94 82 69 69 61 55 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 101 90 78 65 65 57 51 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 95 84 72 59 59 51 45 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 119 110 104 101 97 86 74 61 61 53 47 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 119 119 110 104 100 89 77 64 64 56 50 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS