* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 78 81 87 82 71 63 52 41 33 28 24 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 78 81 63 50 39 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 75 79 63 51 46 41 36 31 27 24 22 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 8 6 14 18 22 28 32 31 30 41 38 40 49 52 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 6 0 3 0 2 0 0 2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 319 322 302 254 231 204 216 216 230 246 253 248 264 252 247 245 249 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 29.6 29.3 29.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 173 173 173 164 158 158 141 143 144 138 132 136 143 144 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.0 -49.2 -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 -50.6 -51.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 7 2 2 0 2 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 66 72 73 74 68 58 55 51 49 47 47 42 42 42 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 24 24 27 24 19 19 17 15 14 13 12 11 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 49 55 48 44 29 20 -15 -6 1 22 42 42 -7 -37 -27 200 MB DIV 13 25 58 75 48 77 57 27 -3 16 0 -13 -53 2 -8 0 -16 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 9 7 12 -12 -19 -20 -6 -5 -6 -4 -8 -8 -13 -9 LAND (KM) 71 142 241 226 139 -97 22 74 190 351 495 591 646 751 897 1009 1073 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.7 24.8 26.2 27.5 30.3 32.4 33.6 34.0 33.8 33.1 32.8 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.8 84.7 84.4 84.2 82.7 80.1 77.3 74.6 72.6 71.3 70.3 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 12 10 7 6 4 4 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 121 145 55 47 43 7 22 23 88 20 20 22 18 12 13 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -5. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 16. 22. 17. 6. -2. -13. -24. -32. -37. -41. -44. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.6 85.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.51 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 42.1% 26.5% 22.0% 17.1% 19.2% 13.5% 12.4% Logistic: 7.7% 18.7% 9.5% 10.0% 6.0% 16.4% 6.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.6% 8.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 22.9% 12.5% 11.0% 7.7% 12.1% 6.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 26.0% 89.0% 80.0% 64.0% 33.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 78 81 63 50 39 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 74 77 59 46 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 67 70 52 39 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 40 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT