* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 08/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 39 41 41 42 42 42 45 48 53 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 39 41 41 42 42 42 45 48 53 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 39 39 38 35 31 29 27 27 29 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 6 6 6 18 33 29 15 27 43 36 20 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 5 16 15 1 4 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 296 294 262 306 15 39 36 34 44 79 176 192 192 208 217 200 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.0 27.5 26.0 21.4 18.1 16.4 16.1 16.8 18.7 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 153 153 154 149 139 135 120 91 80 75 72 73 79 90 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.3 -53.9 -56.1 -56.8 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 62 61 57 54 50 40 29 27 33 34 33 41 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -63 -62 -58 -68 -84 -86 -15 14 7 -48 -87 -66 -66 -49 28 67 200 MB DIV -5 -9 -8 -22 -21 -28 -28 17 32 16 32 15 -9 -18 0 -3 -10 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 8 19 -28 -23 -62 -46 -29 -27 -38 -36 LAND (KM) 1534 1528 1532 1538 1556 1616 1639 1380 1091 1029 1262 1487 900 451 265 559 430 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.0 30.1 31.6 34.2 37.2 40.3 43.9 47.8 50.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.6 51.8 52.1 52.4 52.8 53.5 54.0 53.1 49.5 43.8 37.2 30.0 23.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 17 24 29 31 30 23 17 15 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 25 24 20 14 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 14. 16. 18. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 15. 18. 23. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 51.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 08/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.87 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.6% 9.4% 7.9% 5.2% 10.1% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 18.3% 9.5% 3.7% 2.1% 8.9% 8.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 11.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.4% 6.5% 6.8% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 08/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 08/29/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 36 39 41 41 42 42 42 45 48 53 58 59 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 36 38 38 39 39 39 42 45 50 55 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 32 34 34 35 35 35 38 41 46 51 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 25 27 27 28 28 28 31 34 39 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT