* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 37 34 31 27 24 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 37 34 31 27 24 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 38 36 33 31 29 27 26 24 23 21 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 9 9 8 11 14 22 32 33 40 41 38 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 -7 -7 -5 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 251 269 282 284 285 283 293 284 290 277 278 273 262 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.8 25.2 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.6 24.1 24.0 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 117 109 104 99 96 97 102 101 98 100 104 103 107 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 48 49 51 50 50 49 48 46 43 40 38 37 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 17 18 16 16 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 28 33 46 49 52 40 40 27 31 21 10 0 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -10 -13 2 -10 4 -1 -7 -12 2 -12 -3 -8 -2 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -5 0 4 2 0 0 4 1 2 1 3 5 10 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1483 1612 1745 1868 1993 2138 1928 1769 1644 1517 1401 1286 1172 1066 974 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.9 129.4 130.8 132.1 134.4 136.4 137.9 139.1 140.3 141.4 142.5 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -21. -26. -31. -35. -39. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 126.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##