* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 111 110 102 91 77 76 73 66 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 111 110 102 91 77 76 73 66 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 108 106 102 97 88 80 73 59 42 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 11 4 14 19 14 57 71 65 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 0 1 4 11 17 9 11 5 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 222 264 296 332 335 6 230 236 205 198 181 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.3 27.4 27.5 26.9 17.8 18.8 17.0 13.4 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 150 142 142 131 134 128 79 81 78 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -48.7 -46.7 -46.0 -47.4 -45.8 -44.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.8 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 61 64 64 56 39 32 29 38 45 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 28 37 42 37 26 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 -4 -7 0 37 73 125 130 -12 -65 21 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 39 20 -23 -44 -17 7 26 42 -31 1 29 -159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 5 2 4 27 29 -23 -6 -107 -71 -37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 727 707 689 716 762 812 774 746 463 666 1104 1039 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.3 32.1 33.0 33.8 35.7 37.6 39.8 43.1 46.4 50.1 55.5 62.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.7 70.2 69.6 68.6 67.7 64.6 60.7 55.9 50.0 44.0 37.9 31.2 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 17 20 25 27 27 30 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 15 18 13 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -0. -2. -10. -21. -35. -51. -66. -79. -84. -89. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 4. 6. 12. 24. 34. 46. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. 6. 12. 4. -14. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -13. -24. -38. -39. -42. -49. -60. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 30.4 70.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 701.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 29( 66) 24( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 112 111 110 102 91 77 76 73 66 55 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 111 103 92 78 77 74 67 56 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 109 101 90 76 75 72 65 54 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 96 85 71 70 67 60 49 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 77 63 62 59 52 41 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 89 78 64 63 60 53 42 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 113 112 103 97 93 82 68 67 64 57 46 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS