* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 85 90 89 79 70 59 47 35 27 22 20 18 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 85 90 49 41 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 75 80 85 89 49 42 38 34 29 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 4 11 19 26 28 32 31 34 41 45 35 40 41 40 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 0 -6 3 -1 2 0 3 -1 -1 -3 0 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 328 289 245 198 201 210 222 235 239 244 254 261 268 257 258 260 257 SST (C) 30.7 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.3 30.6 29.2 29.8 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 173 173 173 173 156 167 140 140 141 144 145 144 140 141 141 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -49.0 -49.1 -49.0 -49.1 -49.8 -50.2 -50.8 -51.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 6 4 0 1 1 2 3 6 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 71 73 74 69 60 56 53 52 49 46 41 41 45 43 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 23 28 27 21 20 18 16 14 13 12 12 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 50 59 49 33 37 36 -2 -15 -4 18 19 13 -6 -10 -14 -26 200 MB DIV 19 56 86 59 30 84 35 21 10 21 -12 -58 -25 17 14 -9 -19 700-850 TADV 4 4 10 3 -2 -6 -15 -11 -18 -10 -8 -8 -6 -7 -10 -11 -13 LAND (KM) 149 270 217 118 25 -51 10 98 315 441 496 546 633 648 614 630 712 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 25.1 26.4 27.9 29.4 31.9 33.5 34.1 33.9 33.6 33.2 32.9 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.8 84.6 84.5 84.1 83.6 81.6 78.9 75.8 73.0 71.6 71.2 70.8 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 15 14 14 12 9 4 2 3 2 1 0 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 145 45 52 59 69 26 25 41 24 18 20 21 21 20 19 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -19. -22. -27. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -26. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 20. 19. 9. -0. -11. -23. -35. -43. -48. -50. -52. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.8 84.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 52.5% 38.6% 31.1% 25.8% 21.5% 13.4% 11.4% Logistic: 14.8% 39.3% 24.3% 19.5% 11.6% 17.6% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.5% 16.0% 4.1% 7.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 35.9% 22.3% 19.4% 12.9% 13.4% 5.6% 3.8% DTOPS: 50.0% 43.0% 20.0% 15.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 12( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 9( 15) 1( 16) 0( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 81 85 90 49 41 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 75 79 84 43 35 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 75 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 65 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT