* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902023 08/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 51 63 72 78 80 82 84 83 80 78 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 51 63 72 78 80 82 84 83 80 78 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 45 54 63 69 75 81 84 84 82 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 17 17 16 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 15 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 4 5 -1 -1 6 1 -1 0 1 2 5 8 9 8 SHEAR DIR 80 82 75 77 87 85 72 33 19 353 339 335 303 306 275 296 275 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 152 156 161 159 156 150 147 146 144 145 149 152 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 61 62 57 56 55 59 59 58 55 57 58 61 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 36 45 53 61 57 36 14 9 3 2 0 0 10 1 -6 200 MB DIV 65 55 58 52 30 34 47 53 45 41 23 20 -2 -30 -45 -62 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1362 1354 1339 1338 1349 1381 1423 1456 1485 1517 1532 1559 1639 1801 2017 2266 2515 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.7 7.2 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.3 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.1 151.9 152.8 153.9 155.0 157.3 159.6 161.7 163.5 165.2 166.9 168.6 170.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 10 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 18 36 66 60 45 31 27 30 30 37 59 39 31 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 14. 26. 38. 46. 52. 57. 60. 61. 62. 60. 59. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. -3. 0. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 26. 38. 47. 53. 55. 57. 59. 58. 55. 53. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.5 151.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 23.9% 7.9% 4.4% 0.9% 2.1% 1.7% 27.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 12.6% 6.5% 1.5% 0.3% 5.7% 5.4% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##