* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102023 08/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 25 22 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 25 22 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 26 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 7 8 9 13 17 28 32 40 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -7 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 261 276 284 289 278 295 281 285 278 274 263 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.6 23.7 23.8 24.0 23.5 23.4 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.7 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 101 101 103 97 95 98 98 97 97 100 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 47 48 47 47 43 43 42 39 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 13 12 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 38 48 53 53 51 42 46 36 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -25 -2 -3 2 28 -7 -7 -15 -4 9 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 4 2 -3 1 1 4 3 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1602 1737 1875 1995 2117 2010 1821 1674 1548 1433 1328 1245 1178 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.4 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.6 131.1 132.3 133.6 135.6 137.4 138.8 140.0 141.1 142.1 142.9 143.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -20. -24. -29. -32. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 128.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102023 IRWIN 08/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##