* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 104 92 82 72 69 56 41 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 104 92 82 72 69 56 41 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 104 102 99 91 83 75 65 51 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 6 6 25 13 10 39 73 59 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 5 13 21 7 3 10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 279 302 342 342 360 30 265 229 212 209 206 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.5 21.2 20.9 19.6 14.2 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 143 141 143 138 130 123 87 86 81 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.8 -49.1 -49.2 -49.0 -48.8 -47.2 -46.6 -48.0 -51.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 61 63 64 54 42 35 27 34 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 30 30 31 29 28 27 35 32 22 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 -12 -8 8 29 57 96 103 68 -55 -60 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 9 -29 -32 -19 -47 40 31 50 15 -16 -34 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 3 15 11 19 -39 -27 -114 -46 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 713 710 717 778 857 876 853 725 600 666 857 1191 1086 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.9 32.7 33.6 34.5 35.9 37.8 40.1 42.4 45.2 48.5 51.8 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.2 69.5 68.8 67.6 66.4 63.0 58.4 53.0 48.4 44.6 41.2 37.0 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 18 22 22 20 20 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 16 16 17 16 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -0. -2. -9. -20. -33. -48. -63. -76. -82. -86. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -3. 3. 7. 12. 22. 29. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -7. 2. -3. -19. -23. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -18. -28. -38. -41. -54. -69. -70. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 31.1 70.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 739.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 26( 62) 13( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 107 106 104 92 82 72 69 56 41 40 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 105 93 83 73 70 57 42 41 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 91 81 71 68 55 40 39 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 86 76 66 63 50 35 34 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 79 69 59 56 43 28 27 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 82 72 62 59 46 31 30 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 108 107 98 92 88 78 68 65 52 37 36 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS