* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 92 96 96 87 75 68 58 46 36 30 27 25 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 80 87 92 96 65 41 35 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 87 93 97 68 42 40 37 32 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 13 17 23 27 31 33 33 35 42 45 40 47 45 39 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 2 0 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 233 213 213 208 225 222 235 233 246 258 271 266 261 252 260 246 SST (C) 31.0 30.8 31.2 31.3 31.1 29.9 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 173 173 169 156 152 141 145 147 145 141 140 140 139 137 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -48.8 -48.7 -48.9 -48.7 -49.0 -49.4 -50.2 -51.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 7 2 2 0 2 3 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 69 66 54 51 47 45 41 40 36 39 42 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 30 29 23 20 20 18 15 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 56 41 48 36 35 -15 -1 5 1 0 -8 -9 -24 -27 -11 200 MB DIV 66 88 53 29 67 61 20 -2 3 -7 -30 -57 -4 3 -2 -14 -7 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 2 5 -6 -16 -26 -12 -10 -6 -5 -6 -6 -14 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 296 207 144 23 -123 -43 50 210 396 547 647 714 761 793 818 848 897 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.7 28.1 29.5 30.8 33.0 34.1 34.2 33.7 33.0 32.4 32.2 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.8 84.5 84.3 83.6 82.9 80.4 77.2 74.2 72.1 70.7 69.9 69.2 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 11 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 54 64 6 28 22 70 19 20 21 20 19 18 18 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. -2. -7. -8. -12. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -30. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 16. 7. -5. -12. -22. -34. -44. -50. -53. -55. -59. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 25.3 84.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 51.7% 38.3% 27.6% 20.7% 17.7% 12.2% 9.3% Logistic: 24.7% 47.8% 34.3% 29.8% 16.0% 13.9% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 23.9% 26.2% 12.5% 29.7% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.8% 41.9% 28.4% 29.0% 13.8% 10.9% 4.6% 3.1% DTOPS: 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 13( 19) 0( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 1( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 87 92 96 65 41 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 84 88 57 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 49 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 39 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 87 78 72 69 60 54 46 36 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 IN 12HR 80 87 92 83 77 73 67 59 49 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32