* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902023 08/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 47 57 67 74 77 78 79 79 78 74 70 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 47 57 67 74 77 78 79 79 78 74 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 50 60 66 71 77 82 85 81 74 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 19 19 9 8 10 11 9 10 7 9 13 18 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 3 0 0 3 5 -4 -3 -1 0 6 5 8 7 2 SHEAR DIR 72 66 61 74 76 52 32 36 24 355 357 328 304 282 291 302 312 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 156 160 160 160 154 150 144 143 144 144 146 148 149 147 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 61 64 64 63 61 61 62 61 61 61 60 60 65 67 68 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 48 56 63 68 52 33 26 16 4 -4 -8 0 -3 -17 -34 200 MB DIV 55 66 56 43 35 50 61 72 71 91 34 23 -22 -25 -35 -9 -47 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1351 1347 1338 1349 1370 1418 1455 1456 1449 1442 1456 1468 1560 1669 1789 1861 1918 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.6 7.3 8.1 9.1 9.8 10.2 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.0 152.9 153.9 155.0 156.0 158.2 160.2 161.9 163.2 164.5 165.7 166.8 168.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 36 62 67 60 43 30 22 25 30 30 37 55 57 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 14. 26. 38. 46. 51. 56. 58. 60. 60. 58. 56. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -6. -3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 22. 32. 42. 49. 52. 53. 54. 54. 53. 49. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.3 152.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 25.7% 6.9% 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 4.6% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.5% 14.6% 6.9% 1.3% 0.4% 7.1% 7.0% 13.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902023 INVEST 08/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##