* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 99 100 97 84 73 64 58 51 42 39 37 35 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 90 96 99 65 49 40 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 98 103 69 51 43 39 36 31 27 23 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 17 23 22 25 31 35 32 34 42 46 38 42 39 36 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 0 2 -2 2 1 5 0 0 -1 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 190 211 204 202 211 224 229 240 242 252 262 264 254 252 243 250 241 SST (C) 30.8 31.3 31.4 30.7 30.7 29.4 29.9 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 173 173 160 169 144 143 142 145 146 146 148 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.8 -48.6 -48.6 -49.0 -49.3 -49.9 -51.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 7 5 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 64 58 52 46 43 36 34 34 33 39 45 46 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 28 28 27 23 21 19 19 18 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 67 55 43 46 41 37 2 -6 0 14 14 22 14 22 31 24 12 200 MB DIV 83 56 37 80 88 54 10 -2 -23 -41 -55 -2 17 0 -17 -17 -29 700-850 TADV 8 0 5 9 -3 -15 -27 -19 -13 -13 -11 -7 -6 -8 -7 -9 -12 LAND (KM) 212 145 5 -112 -49 20 117 343 528 644 698 740 778 805 839 861 903 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 28.4 29.9 31.1 32.2 33.7 34.1 33.7 33.2 32.7 32.2 31.9 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.7 84.3 83.8 82.7 81.6 78.5 75.5 72.8 70.8 69.7 69.4 69.1 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 12 10 7 4 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 59 53 57 6 10 28 51 25 20 19 20 21 21 23 26 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -32. -35. -39. -43. -47. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -7. -4. -2. -1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 7. -6. -16. -26. -32. -39. -48. -51. -53. -55. -56. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.9 84.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.46 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.0% 43.8% 30.9% 20.2% 10.7% 11.6% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 30.5% 19.2% 12.7% 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 27.0% 8.6% 4.3% 16.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.6% 27.6% 18.1% 16.5% 5.6% 5.6% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 1( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 96 99 65 49 40 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 92 58 42 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 52 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 64 55 44 35 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 51 42 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 IN 6HR 90 96 87 81 78 76 65 56 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 12HR 90 96 99 90 84 80 69 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40